The Election is Too Close to Call, in Unlikely Places

The author of this article previously worked for Delgado for Congress and is a registered voter in NY-19.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

We’re hearing a lot lately about these presidential election battleground states that will decide control of the executive branch. While the outcome of the presidential election is dominating the news and social media, no candidate will be able to execute their full agenda without control of the House. 

The political landscape for congressional races looks completely different from the presidential race. Gerrymandering has made most districts across the country highly partisan, so much so that FiveThirtyEight only classifies 6 out of the 435 districts in the country as toss-ups this year. To win control of the house, Democrats would have to flip 4 of these districts, while Republicans only have to hold on to 3 of their seats. Surprisingly, only one toss-up district is in a swing state. Instead, the majority of these close house races are in states that are entirely out of the presidential political conversation: 

Alaska, California, New York, Oregon and Washington.

The most competitive congressional race in the country is in the solidly blue state of New York’s 19th district. NY-19 sits in the middle of the state, spanning from the top of the New York City suburbs, through the Hudson Valley, nearly to Albany, then east to the Finger Lakes. The district includes a mix of rural areas with farmland, trendier small towns that attract weekenders from New York City and two major college towns — Ithaca and Binghamton. 

The incumbent in the race, Republican Marc Molinaro, was elected to congress in 2022. Prior to his election, Molinaro had a long career in local politics in the Hudson Valley, serving as a Mayor, State Assemblyman and County Executive. His opponent, the Democrat Josh Riley is also originally from upstate New York and has previously worked as a policy analyst at the Department of Labor, a corporate lawyer and general counsel to U.S. Senator Al Franken on the Senate Judiciary Committee. 

For voters in NY-19, this race is nothing new. Molinaro defeated Riley in 2022, by 1.6%. This year the margins are much closer with many polls projecting that the race could be within 0.1%. So, what changed?

NY-19 is no stranger to competitive elections. The district swung from red to blue in 2018 and then blue to red in 2022. But the 2022 election came abruptly after a few major changes in the district. The district’s congressman, Antonio Delgado, stepped down earlier that year to become the new Lieutenant Governor of New York, in the wake of Governor Cuomo’s scandal and resignation. Molinaro then made his first appearance on the congressional ballot in the special election in August, where the democratic candidate Pat Ryan defeated him to keep Democratic control of the seat. Then, before the midterm elections in November, all of New York’s district lines were redrawn and Ryan was moved into NY-18. Riley stepped up in those final few months to replace Ryan as Molinaro’s Democratic challenger. 

There are a few explanations for Molinaro’s larger margins over Riley in 2022. The most significant being that the new district maps were finalized so late in the race that Riley had less than 2 months to get his name out there. Redistricting also confused a lot of voters and contributed to low voter turnout. 

This election cycle is different. By now, Riley has had adequate time to stage a strategic campaign, voters are more comfortable with the new district map and people are more excited to participate electorally in a presidential election year. 

Another change is the makeup of likely voters in the district. Post-pandemic, an increasing number of primarily liberal New York City residents with second-homes in districts like NY-19 switched their voter registrations upstate where their votes have a larger impact. This trend has continued into the current election cycle, with over 1040 newly re-registered voters in NY-19 since September. 

Now, the race is a toss-up and the Hudson Valley is buzzing. As you drive around the district, there are Riley or Molinaro signs on almost every house. The businesses in some, mostly left-leaning, towns have joined the conversation too. In Hudson, a popular town for weekenders from the city, most of the shops on main street have either a democratic campaign sign or a farcical depiction of former President Trump in their front windows painted by beloved local artist, Earl. 

The upcoming election has been defined by the stark ideological differences between the presidential candidates, but in NY-19, the congressional candidates seem to both be stepping away from their party platforms to focus on bipartisanship to solve local problems.

When Molinaro and Riley debated last month, there were moments where the candidates slipped into fiery arguments that mirrored the presidential debates, like a discussion of whether Molinaro perpetuated Trump’s false rumor about Haitian immigrants eating pets. Yet, the emphasis for both candidates was on  policies that would specifically promote New York’s industry, rebuild former factory towns and support Hudson Valley residents. 

Even the district’s constituents seem to be straying slightly from their respective ideological camps and actually talking to each other about what will make the district better for themselves and their neighbors. Walking into Bimi’s Cheese Shop in the town of Chatham, you hear stories of how locals spoke to both of the candidates at the county fair, or went to one of their campaign events at the brewery down the street. Each candidate might represent completely different party ideologies, but at home they are both people you could grab a beer with. 

NY-19 is one of the last remaining examples of a true swing district, but the district still represents the American political landscape as a whole. NY-19 has a combination of family farms, small towns, and voters from urban areas, plus concentrations of both younger voters and retirees. It has been shaken by redistricting, and its voting population continues to skew younger and more liberal. Luckily, an important factor sets this race apart from the national politics, there’s still room for bipartisanship in NY-19.

As we look toward November, competitive house races like this one cannot be overlooked. These races will not only determine which party controls the house, but also point to the lasting impacts of state-by-state gerrymandering. If swing congressional districts like NY-19 are disappearing, a government that serves the diverse interests of the American people could be too. 

The image featured in this article is licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license. No changes were made to the original image, which was taken by Diana Robinson and can be found here.